The uncertainty opportunity

People love to talk about “these uncertain times,” like uncertainty is some kind of new development. It’s not. Today's flavor of uncertainty—tariffs, tax reform, a shaky economy—is just a different, or heightened, version of what we’ve always lived with.

Ten years ago, it was a looming recession. Before that, the housing bubble. Before that, the dot-com bust. The uncertainty is always there.

Look, the reality is that every day is uncertain. We never know what's around the corner, but there are moments when we’re more aware of that truth than others (like right now).

The real question is: What's your mindset regarding uncertainty? And how do you approach it, as a result?

The challenge isn’t to eliminate uncertainty. It’s choosing how you decide to lead through it. And I'll tell you... Your choice will have a massive impact on the trajectory of your career and/or your firm's success.

You choose how you respond

The typical reaction to uncertainty is to get defensive. Pause hiring. Delay investments. Halt innovation. Protect what you’ve got.

That’s not leadership. That’s survival.

Look, if you’re in a true crisis and your business is about to fail, yes, you do what you need to survive. But 90% of the time, that’s not the kind of uncertainty we’re dealing with. It’s discomfort, volatility, and risk. And it makes many leaders incredibly uncomfortable—I get it.

But you get to choose: Do you try to protect yourself from it and play defense? Or do you go toward it—with strategy, discipline, and focus?

The opportunity isn’t in the uncertainty; it’s in your response to it.

At Baker Tilly, I remember being glued to the TV during the first weeks of COVID, watching what was unfolding. But after a few days, I realized I had a company to lead. I couldn’t wait for certainty, because we weren't going to get it. We had to pave our own path forward.

One of the best decisions I made during that time was telling my leadership team very early on: Plan for the offices to be closed for a year.

They pushed back: “They’ll be open by July.”

And I said: “No. Prepare for May or June next year.”

Not because I had some crystal ball or because I was trying to win some predictive game, but because I knew that we needed to avoid living in a reactionary limbo and start creating our reality.

I knew that if we planned for the offices to be closed for a year, we'd start making the necessary shifts and investments now to make sure the firm was set up to operate remotely. If we accepted this new environment as our reality, we'd fully embrace it, rather than half-committing and half-waiting to return to what once was.

That’s what leaders do: they create a reality that people can operate in—even when the world around them is uncertain. If you wait for the market or outside factors to tell you what to do, you’ll always be reacting. You’ll be stuck on defense.

So stop waiting to react and instead, go define and create your own future.

The thing that steadies the ship

All roads lead to and from strategy. There's a reason I always say it, because it's the guiding light during storms like this. Without a clear strategy, you're more vulnerable to uncertainty.

When you have a clear strategy in place, then your job is to play your own game. It's you vs you. Don't get too distracted by what's going on around you, and instead, double down on your strategy.

The more headlines you read, the more panels you attend, and the more noise you take in, the more likely you are to start second-guessing yourself. When that happens, strategy execution starts to falter.

Don’t do that. Stay focused on your strategy.

During COVID, the environment might have shifted around us, but we were laser-focused on what we set out to do, and our approach didn't falter.

That doesn't mean we got every move right, but we moved together toward our common vision. And that made all the difference. Not just financially, but culturally too. We kept growing through COVID and positioned ourselves to thrive on the other side.

Execute on your strategy and you're much more likely to survive (and even thrive) during any environment, no matter how much uncertainty exists.

Stop waiting for certainty

The funny thing about uncertainty is, what's the opposite? Certainty? Well, there’s never going to be 100% certainty. So stop waiting for it.

If there’s one thing I’ve learned—and one thing I hope every leader reading this internalizes—it’s this:

Design your strategy. Build your execution model. Then go execute it.

Play your game, no matter the environment.

Here's a reflection question this week: What’s one place where you’re playing defense right now? And what would it look like to go on offense instead?

That’s how the most effective leaders navigate uncertainty. Not by waiting for the fog to clear—but by marching forward through it, with confidence and intention.

If this resonated, forward it to a leader who needs to hear it today.

With intention,

Alan D Whitman